Bulgaria ranks last in Europe in the share of those vaccinated against COVID-19. Through the data presented (week 43) we check whether this behavior is linked to public attitudes and perceptions of governance and, if so, in what way. The correlation method was used for this purpose.

Data processing shows that the highest value ​​of positive correlation (0.74) is between the percentage of vaccinated and the trust in the health system. This means that the movement of the two indicators - the share of vaccinated and the degree of confidence - has the same direction and similar growth rate. There is also a strong positive correlation (0.7) with confidence in vaccines in general.

The correlation weakens to moderate (0.52) when a higher-level confidence indicator is applied, ie to the government as a whole. The probable reason for this is the action of many other factors.

Due to different ways of tracking deaths from / with COVID-19 in different countries, as well as published public information about an unknown but significant number of falsified immunization certificates in Bulgaria, the correlation with the excess mortality rate for the crisis period was measured (number of deaths per 1,000 people above the average for the period 2015-2019 without taking into account the age demographics). It is reverse and strong (-0.75). This means that a high excess mortality rate and low levels of vaccination against COVID-19 are observed together and vice versa, a low excess mortality rate and high levels of vaccination.

The excess mortality rate is a complex indicator and is influenced by many factors: health habits and status of the population, quality of life, quality of hospital and pre-hospital care, etc. The reasons for the achieved vaccination levels we are looking for are also complex.

In addition, in countries with high vaccination coverage against COVID-19, excess mortality has accumulated before the campaigns were completed and tails off after that, while in countries with low vaccination coverage, excess mortality continues to rise.

These three strong correlations and the respective arguments substantiate the hypothesis that the low levels of vaccination against COVID-19 are due to distrust in the health system, bad health health and quality of life, distrust in vaccines and to a lesser extent distrust in the Government.

The inverse correlation between the number of vaccinated and trust in scientists is weak and cannot be explained at this stage.