What has changed in the period 2021 – 2023?
We are tracking here the new data from Eurobarometer (regular and special) and from the EU Justice Scoreboard. We use data on the standard justice indicators effectiveness and independence and show the results in comparative European context.
Trust in government, which in the previous monitored period until 2021 was on the negative part of the scale, marked a further decline and in the summer of 2023 reached its lowest score for the past 12 years. It is also the lowest among the EU member states. The only country whose values for trust in government are comparable with those for Bulgaria is Slovakia. The indicator values of the rest of the member states have slightly modified upward or downward but are generally concentrated on the neutral to negative part of the scale. The only score that is an exception is for Luxemburg.
On the map of Europe illustrating trust in the judiciary system Bulgaria still stands out coloured in the bright red of the negative score and the trust keeps diminishing. Croatia’s colour has faded somewhat, meaning its scores have improved and aligned more with those of the remaining EU member states. Most of the European countries have improved their scores for this indicator (and Denmark shows enviably high values). One-third of the member states registered minimum reductions. The biggest one is for Malta, which invisible on the map due to its size.
The previous measurement (2020) of indicator “citizens’ attitude to high-level corruption” disclosed a very negative attitude of the Bulgarian citizens. They had stated categorically that fight with it is insufficient. In 2023 this indicator’s value demonstrate a tangible improvement throughout the EU and thus limiting the corrupt environment, including in Bulgaria. This suggests that the European citizens’ perception of the efforts investing in the combat with corrupt practices is improving, least so in Hungary.
The situation is different when we look at the indicator “perceived independence of the justice system”. Although it is not alone in this among the EU members, the perceived dependence in Bulgaria is one of the most definitively expressed More than 50% of the Bulgarian citizens believe there is interference and pressure on behalf of the government and politicians, as well as of economic interests.
In a nutshell, what has changed in the period is people’s understanding of what is wrong with the system of justice in Bulgaria. If three years ago they believed that there are many corrupt magistrates, today corruption is not perceived as a serious problem. But the absent independence remains. And with it the feeling that the system of justice is not just.
The judiciary system in Bulgaria has been problematic for decades and the target of heated political arguments, criticism from the European Commission and the embassies of some countries. The public prosecutor and to a lesser extent the court in turn report achieved results by the bulk. Why then the tension persists?
Here is what the data show us (the interactive maps used representative data from Eurobarometer surveys (regular and special) and the EU Justice Scoreboard. We use data on the standard justice indicators effectiveness and independence and show the results in comparative European context.
The first pair of maps checks whether the situation with the judiciary system is more problematic than the situation with the executive system through the trust indicator. In the past five years trust in government in Bulgaria has variable values depending on the current political and economic situation but remains on the negative part of the scale. It is not much different from the situation in the other EU member states where changes in the trust in government are more dynamic depending on the type of government and the attitudes are consistently neutral to positive only in the countries of Northern Europe.
The trust in the justice system indicator however discloses a sharp difference between Bulgaria’s scores and those of the rest of the EU states. Bulgaria stands out on the map with its exceptionally low trust which has not changed during the entire covered period (2016-2021). This result is only comparable with the result of Croatia.
The second pair of maps illustrates the results for effectiveness of the judiciary system measured through two main indicators – weighted average time to resolve civil, commercial, administrative and other cases (at first instance in days) and number of pending cases in civil, commercial, administrative and other proceedings (at first instance per 100 residents). Considering the first indicator “time to resolve a case” since the year 2010 the Bulgarian court has demonstrated remarkably high effectiveness that places it at the same level with or higher than the majority of the member states. If we look at the EU as a whole, most of them are concentrated in the middle neutral part of the scale or on its positive part.
Under the second indicator “number of pending cases” Bulgaria occupies a stable position among the leading European states without fluctuations in time. With the exception of Sweden and the Baltic states most member states demonstrate sharp alterations in their values during the period.
The visible conclusion is that the Bulgarian judiciary system has high level of effectiveness.
The second pair of maps shows the results of the justice systems independence surveys. Here again we use two main indicators with high correlation between them (from -0.72 at the beginning to -0.75 at the end of the studied period), in other words the results demonstrate consistency. The first indicator “citizens’ perception of independence of the justice system” categorically defines the justice system in Bulgaria in the period 2016 – 2021 as dependent. This result is comparable to countries like Italy, Croatia, Poland, Slovakia. The best perception of independence of justice we find in the North-European countries (Sweden, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands) and in Ireland and Germany.
Regarding the second indicator of independence “perception of the combat with high-level corruption” the Bulgarian citizens have expressed very negative opinions of insufficient combat with corruption during the past 10-year period. This problem is evident to various degrees all over Europe, particularly in France and Spain (as a result of disclosures made public) and in Latvia and Lithuania.
